Wednesday, January 30, 2008

"What if's" for today's US Fed meeting?

It seems that the financial world has more or less factored in a 50 basis point cut in the US federal funds rate. But, what if the Fed decides to cut the rates by only 25 basis points or maybe not cut the rates at all?

The trouble is that even if the fed funds rate is cut by 50 basis points, what do stock market participants do - given that the same has already been factored in...

looks like being in cash and taking some of the profits off the table on days of sharp bounce-backs or the so-called relief rallies (provided they are there for the taking, which is most likely to be the case with people who have been in the markets for over a year now)

A few more things may have also changed in the past few weeks -

- new found respect for words like "risk & return"
- sharp drop in investor expectations
- importance of asset allocation, etc.

1 comment:

Venkat Muthukrishnan said...

Hi Ravi,
I didnt know that you have re-started your blog. It was nice seeing your updates.
With best wishes