Thursday, November 30, 2006

A break!

Not blogging for a while. Be back sometime in early 2007.

Tuesday, November 14, 2006

What is so special about Unitech?

The last two years have seen share price of Unitech, a North-based real estate and construction company, sky rocket from a mere Rs.5 per share to Rs.447 today, a whopping 8,840 per cent return. The price is on an adjusted basis. As of 14-Nov, the scrip is trading at a market cap of over Rs.35,000 crore. This makes it bigger than HDFC bank, Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Satyam Computers....a whole host of other large companies. Something seems completely out of place here....because the company earned Rs.100 crore in the latest quarter...even if one were to extrapolate this over the next three quarters, the total net profit for the next one year comes to around Rs.400 crore, rendering a forward P/E of over 80 times....!! It this an asset bubble in making or am I missing anything?

Monday, November 13, 2006

Booked partial profits in Ankur Drugs; +ve outlook on saw pipe companies

I booked partial profits in Ankur Drugs today. The scrip has appreciated by over 90% since I purchased it around 3 odd months ago. It was then at 92, today it closed at Rs.177 per share on the BSE. I continue to remain bullish over the company's prospects. But chose to book some profits given the sharp run-up in price over the last few months.

Between, HDFC Securities has come out with a report on the domestic Saw Pipes industry. The outlook is very positive given the kind of investments happening in the petroleum industry across the globe and in various sewage and irrigation projects in India. HDFC Securities expects the companies in this sector to outperform over the next 2-3 years. The companies are:

Man Industries, PSL, Jindal Saw, Welspun Gujarat, Maharashtra Seamless and Ratnamani Metals and Tubes. Download the entire report from here.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Noteworthy performers in my folio: Ankur Drugs, Man Industries & Subros

The recently concluded September quarter produced one of the best results for Corporate India. Growth in sales and profits was robust. Some of the noteworthy performers in my portfolio were:

1).Ankur Drugs
Sales: Rs.61.5 cr, up 77% y-o-y,
PAT: Rs.7 cr, up 133%,
P/E: 7.25 times.

2).Man Inds.
Sales: Rs.292.6 cr, 60.5%,
PAT: Rs.14.8cr, 85.7%,
P/E: 12.1 times

Sales: Rs.165.8 cr, 26.8%,
PAT: Rs.7.8 cr, 92.6%,
P/E: 10.6 times

4).Raj. Spg & Wvg Mills
Sales: Rs.235.8 cr, 15.6%,
PAT: Rs. 7.2 cr, 18%,
P/E: 9.7 times.

I expect these companies to sustain this performance over the next two quarters. My personal price targets for these are:

Ankur - Rs.180+ (buy price - 92)
Man Inds - Rs.275+ (buy price - 214)
Subros - Rs.300+ (buy price - 167)
Raj.Spg - Rs.170+ (buy price - 120)

I had recently written about SPL Industries. I bought this scrip at around Rs.42. But it has since slipped to Rs.33. Reason: One of the worst performances since the company got listed. Thus far it earned around Rs.3-4 crore per quarter during each of the last two years. However, the Sept'06 quarter turned out be exceptionally bad. Its profit declined by over 90% to a few lakhs. Not surprisingly, the stock has slipped by around 25% since I bought it. The 'cigar butt' really hit me tight on my butt :(

Monday, November 06, 2006

India Infoline up 20% today?

I had written about Indiainfoline a few days ago...the scrip has moved up by around 25% since then. Its up 20% today. Takeover, private placement or just rising with the overall market? Any guesses?

Update: 7-Nov-06: The scrip went further up today. Closed the day at 279, up 11% over the previous close. That means a gain of around 40% since I wrote about it a few days ago...phew!!

Another update: 9-Nov-06: India Infoline is up another 12% today. And is currently quoting at Rs.296. Intra-day high for the scrip was 306.....some run-up this!!