Sunday, December 14, 2008

Last two months the Most volatile ever...

...atleast since 1997.

I am trying to get hold of Sensex data prior to 1991, which might indicate whether we've been _here_ before (in terms of volatility) for such an extended period of time. However, it is quite clear from the post that bull-markets have begun only after a prolonged period of low volatility (as was the case in 1998-99) or during (2002-03). So the next bull market may only come about when we witness a dramatic drop in volatility, that too over an extended period of time. Even in December we've had days of sharp moves, both on the upside and on the downside.

The bigger question is: whether this is an opportune time to make long term investments?

Inspired by series of such threads initiated by:

Dr.Ajay Shah: Crisis Watch
Kaushik Gala: Daily Dose of Deflation

I am initiating a new thread "Time to Invest: Dec'08-Jun'09". This is because, I personally believe that this indeed is a good time to make long term investments. Markets may come back to re-test the lows of Oct 27, or it may have already bottomed out. But, we are surely not looking at another bull run for sometime now. However, that's the advantage one has, if one is looking to make long term investments.

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