Last two months the Most volatile ever...

...atleast since 1997.

I am trying to get hold of Sensex data prior to 1991, which might indicate whether we've been _here_ before (in terms of volatility) for such an extended period of time. However, it is quite clear from the post that bull-markets have begun only after a prolonged period of low volatility (as was the case in 1998-99) or during (2002-03). So the next bull market may only come about when we witness a dramatic drop in volatility, that too over an extended period of time. Even in December we've had days of sharp moves, both on the upside and on the downside.

















The bigger question is: whether this is an opportune time to make long term investments?

Inspired by series of such threads initiated by:

Dr.Ajay Shah: Crisis Watch
Kaushik Gala: Daily Dose of Deflation

I am initiating a new thread "Time to Invest: Dec'08-Jun'09". This is because, I personally believe that this indeed is a good time to make long term investments. Markets may come back to re-test the lows of Oct 27, or it may have already bottomed out. But, we are surely not looking at another bull run for sometime now. However, that's the advantage one has, if one is looking to make long term investments.

Inflation down to single digits; Dow down 400 points...

For the week ended November 1'08, inflation in India (as measured by the WPI) dropped sharply to 8.98%. [read here]. This is clearly a positive.

But, will we embrace the sharp the drop in inflation or will we discard it and follow stock markets across-the-globe to sink further?

Video - NNT on Risk & what lies ahead...

Uncertain Times: Threat or Opportunity?

Uncertain Times:

• Domestic Non-bank credit is as good as gone
• Overnight rates are on an average higher than 3-yr Fixed Deposits
• A sharp slowdown in the overall economy, led by the mfg sector
• Slowing sales and rapidly deteriorating profits and profitability
  
• Thanks to higher interest rates, rapidly deteriorating corporate India's performance, consumer demand too remains poor and is expected to only worsen hereon
  
• Stock markets continue their rapid journey down-south
  
• Serial bomb-blasts taking place across-the-nation, city after city
• National & a host of assembly elections coming up with no certainty or clue of who will form the new government
• Disputes amongst state politicians over jobs & reservations (Mah, Bihar, & Assam)

Testing times (that's quite an understatement) for the Prime Minister, the Finance Minister and the RBI.

However, as an investor, how should one see and behave in such a scenario? Is this a threat or an opportunity of a lifetime to invest?

Rayban Sun Optics - Delisting offer

The voluntary de-listing offer from Ray Ban Holdings, the parent company of Rayban Sun Optics was released today. Following are the details of the same:

ICICI Securities Ltd ("Manager to the Offer") on behalf of Ray Ban Indian Holdings Inc. ("RI Holdings" or "Acquirer"), has issued this Public Announcement ("PA") to the Equity shareholders of RayBan Sun Optics India Ltd ("Target Company"), under Clause 7 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Delisting of Securities) Guidelines, 2003, ("Guidelines") in respect of the proposed acquisition of the fully paid-up equity shares and delisting of the Company under the Guidelines, (the "Delisting Offer"). The Acquirer is the holding company of Target Company and holds 70.54% of the fully paid-up share capital of the Target Company.

The Delisting Offer:

The Acquirer is making this Public Announcement to the public holders of the equity shares of the Company ("Shareholders"), to acquire, in accordance with the Guidelines and on the terms and subject to the conditions set out in PA, up to 72,10,554 fully paid-up equity shares of the Company with a face value of Rs 10 each, representing approximately 29.46% of the fully paid-up share capital of the Company (the "Offer Shares") under the Guidelines. Consequently, the Acquirer seeks to delist the equity shares of the Company pursuant to the voluntary delisting procedures set out in the Guidelines.

The Board of Directors of the Acquirer has vide its resolution dated June 25, 2008, resolved to make a voluntary delisting offer to the Shareholders of the Company in accordance with the Guidelines. The Acquirer has vide letter dated June 25, 2008 expressed its intention to the Board of Directors of the Company to make a voluntary delisting offer to the public shareholders of the Company in accordance with the Guidelines in order to enhance operating flexibility of the Company and provide an exit opportunity to the public
shareholders of the Company. The Acquirer also requested the Board of Directors of the Company to convene an extraordinary general meeting of the shareholders of the Company to consider their proposal.

The approval of the shareholders of the Company is required in terms of Clause 6 of the Guidelines for voluntary delisting of the Company. The shareholders of the Company have granted their approval for a voluntary delisting of the equity shares of the Company from the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), by requisite majority, at an extra-ordinary general meeting held on July 25, 2008.

The equity shares of the Company are currently listed only on the BSE. The Acquirer is seeking to delist the equity shares of the Company from the BSE.

The Acquirer proposes to acquire the Offer Shares pursuant to a reverse book building process established by the Guidelines.

The Guidelines require the floor price for the Offer Shares to be acquired pursuant to the reverse book building process to be the "average of 26 weeks traded price quoted on the stock exchange where the shares of the company are most frequently traded preceding 26 weeks from the date of the public announcement." For the purposes of this calculation, the Acquirer has used the average of the weekly highs and lows of the closing prices of the Offer Shares as quoted on the BSE for the 26 weeks preceding the date of this Public Announcement, resulting in a floor price of Rs 82 per Share (the "Floor Price").

Shareholders may tender their Offer Shares at any time during the Bid Period (as defined below) and at any price at or above the Floor Price in accordance with the terms and subject to the conditions in the PA.

Schedule of Activities:

Resolution for delisting of equity shares passed by the shareholders of the Company - July 25, 2008

Public Announcement - July 28, 2008

Bid Letter expected to be dispatched to Shareholders - August 01, 2008

Bid Opening Date (10.00 am) - August 18, 2008

Bid Closing Date (3.00 pm) - August 22, 2008

Announcement of Exit Price / Rejection of Discovered Price - August 26, 2008

Final Settlement Date with the BSE for shares in dematerialized form** - August 27, 2008

Tender Offer for holders of physical certificates opens - August 28, 2008

Last day for Shareholders holding shares in Physical form to tender their Shares - September 11, 2008

Final Settlement Date for Shareholders holding Shares in Physical Form - September 19, 2008

** Subject to the announcement of an Exit Price by the Acquirer.