the chart depicts indexed movement in the P/E and the EPS of NSE's Nifty index...it is quite a useful chart to monitor...
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Drivers of stock prices - p/e expansion vs eps expansion
the chart depicts indexed movement in the P/E and the EPS of NSE's Nifty index...it is quite a useful chart to monitor...
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Indian IPO market in 2008
theIPOguru has a small review note on the Indian Primary market with recommendations on some of the stocks that listed recently. A brief summary of the same is as follows:
Future Capital Holdings Ltd: Hold
Mundra Port: Hold
Read the full article here.
Future Capital Holdings Ltd: Hold
Mundra Port: Hold
Brigade Enterprises Ltd: Sell
Kolte Patil Developers Ltd: Sell
Aries Agro Ltd: Hold
Precision Pipes & Profiles Company Ltd: Sell
Burnpur Cement: Sell
Read the full article here.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
"What if's" for today's US Fed meeting?
It seems that the financial world has more or less factored in a 50 basis point cut in the US federal funds rate. But, what if the Fed decides to cut the rates by only 25 basis points or maybe not cut the rates at all?
The trouble is that even if the fed funds rate is cut by 50 basis points, what do stock market participants do - given that the same has already been factored in...
looks like being in cash and taking some of the profits off the table on days of sharp bounce-backs or the so-called relief rallies (provided they are there for the taking, which is most likely to be the case with people who have been in the markets for over a year now)
A few more things may have also changed in the past few weeks -
- new found respect for words like "risk & return"
- sharp drop in investor expectations
- importance of asset allocation, etc.
The trouble is that even if the fed funds rate is cut by 50 basis points, what do stock market participants do - given that the same has already been factored in...
looks like being in cash and taking some of the profits off the table on days of sharp bounce-backs or the so-called relief rallies (provided they are there for the taking, which is most likely to be the case with people who have been in the markets for over a year now)
A few more things may have also changed in the past few weeks -
- new found respect for words like "risk & return"
- sharp drop in investor expectations
- importance of asset allocation, etc.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Readings: Benjamin Franklin' 13 virtues....
| 1. TEMPERANCE. | Eat not to dullness; drink not to elevation. |
| 2. SILENCE. | Speak not but what may benefit others or yourself; avoid trifling conversation. |
| 3. ORDER. | Let all your things have their places; let each part of your business have its time. |
| 4. RESOLUTION. | Resolve to perform what you ought; perform without fail what you resolve. |
| 5. FRUGALITY. | Make no expense but to do good to others or yourself; i.e., waste nothing. |
| 6. INDUSTRY. | Lose no time; be always employ'd in something useful; cut off all unnecessary actions. |
| 7. SINCERITY. | Use no hurtful deceit; think innocently and justly, and, if you speak, speak accordingly. |
| 8. JUSTICE. | Wrong none by doing injuries, or omitting the benefits that are your duty. |
| 9. MODERATION. | Avoid extreams; forbear resenting injuries so much as you think they deserve. |
| 10. CLEANLINESS. | Tolerate no uncleanliness in body, cloaths, or habitation. |
| 11.TRANQUILLITY. | Be not disturbed at trifles, or at accidents common or unavoidable. |
| 12. CHASTITY. | Rarely use venery but for health or offspring, never to dulness, weakness, or the injury of your own or another's peace or reputation. |
| 13. HUMILITY. | Imitate Jesus and Socrates. |
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Indian stock markets collapse; take global cues
What a few weeks of trading it has been....since the beginning of 2008. The benchmark indices in India, and across-the-globe, has crashed by anywhere between 15-20%.
BSE Sensex: -17.6%
BSE Midcap: -27.5%
BSE Smallcap: -26.7%
Most retail portfolios (cash folios) are down by anywhere between 25-40%. F&O traders that were long would have lost their shirts though.
Who did what during this period:
Clearly, global market cues and a concurrent pull out by FIIs have had a big impact on the markets. So far they have pulled out more than 2.5 billion dollars, that too in five straight trading sessions. However, a pull out of a mere USD 2.5 billion dollars is really small when one considers the overall inflows and the total market cap of Indian markets.
Where to now?
US Federal Reserve in an extreme step reduced the overnight federal funds rate by a sharp 75 basis points, to 3.25%. This has had a positive impact on most emerging markets with Brazil and Mexico recording over 5% gains overnight. Some of the major Asian markets open in the green too. Each of the three major indices - Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are currently up by anywhere between 2-5%.
Indian markets are therefore expected to open in positive territory this morning. However, will the gains sustain over the next few days? Maybe not. Given the kind of drop we've seen in the past few days, a lot of people would be looking to exit on rallies, simply to balance our their positions which are currently tottering deep in the red.
theIPOguru has a nice and apt article on "Greed and Fear". Here's the article ...
It was flattering to receive all those calls and SMS’s yesterday and again, this morning, after the stock-market did the ‘Humpty-Dumpty’ act.
Most of those of you who called had seen my article titled ‘A Sense of Déjà vu’ which appeared in the HT ( Delhi and Mumbai edition ) and was also posted on the blog.
Call it premonition, or simply the wisdom that comes with hair turning grey over the years spent at the bourses, but at the end of the day, that’s what I have believed investing is all about. Its all about Asset Allocation, Re-Balancing and lots of Common Sense.
Fundamentals cannot be ignored . As good old Abe Lincoln once said ‘ You can fool all the people, some of the time; Some of the People, all the time; But you can never fool all the people, all the time’.
Will the markets rebound after this hammering ? They certainly will. When ? Ask the FIIs ( or should it be the world’s richest brothers ? ).
Like I mentioned, fundamentals cannot be ignored forever.
So my friends, keep the faith, consider buying at successive declines and play the waiting game. The rewards will come.
Patience, like I often mention, is a great virtue.
--
Here's the link to the entire article.
As for me, I've been buying (with whatever little money I have...) some of the stocks that I'm bullish on:
- Crest Animation
- Monsanto India
- Dish TV
- Patel Integrated Logistics
BSE Sensex: -17.6%
BSE Midcap: -27.5%
BSE Smallcap: -26.7%
Most retail portfolios (cash folios) are down by anywhere between 25-40%. F&O traders that were long would have lost their shirts though.
Who did what during this period:
| Cum. MF | Cum. FIIs | Sensex | ||
| 1-Jan-08 | 183.5 | 142.3 | ||
| 2-Jan-08 | 478.7 | -102.2 | 0.8% | |
| 3-Jan-08 | 968.7 | 622.9 | -0.6% | |
| 4-Jan-08 | 1585.3 | 1131.7 | 1.7% | |
| 7-Jan-08 | 1615.3 | 1050.8 | 0.6% | |
| 8-Jan-08 | 1627.8 | 2104.2 | 0.3% | |
| 9-Jan-08 | 1426.6 | 2378.8 | 0.0% | |
| 10-Jan-08 | 1472.9 | 1748.0 | -1.4% | |
| 11-Jan-08 | 1198.7 | 1861.7 | 1.2% | |
| 14-Jan-08 | 647.3 | 2036.1 | -0.5% | |
| 15-Jan-08 | 127.8 | 2261.9 | -2.3% | |
| 16-Jan-08 | 68.3 | -17.7 | -1.9% | |
| 17-Jan-08 | 529.2 | -2203.7 | -0.8% | |
| 18-Jan-08 | 258.0 | -3559.8 | -3.5% | |
| 21-Jan-08 | 2256.2 | -5985.5 | -7.4% | |
| 22-Jan-08 | 5034.9 | -10250.7 | -5.0% |
Clearly, global market cues and a concurrent pull out by FIIs have had a big impact on the markets. So far they have pulled out more than 2.5 billion dollars, that too in five straight trading sessions. However, a pull out of a mere USD 2.5 billion dollars is really small when one considers the overall inflows and the total market cap of Indian markets.
Where to now?
US Federal Reserve in an extreme step reduced the overnight federal funds rate by a sharp 75 basis points, to 3.25%. This has had a positive impact on most emerging markets with Brazil and Mexico recording over 5% gains overnight. Some of the major Asian markets open in the green too. Each of the three major indices - Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai are currently up by anywhere between 2-5%.
Indian markets are therefore expected to open in positive territory this morning. However, will the gains sustain over the next few days? Maybe not. Given the kind of drop we've seen in the past few days, a lot of people would be looking to exit on rallies, simply to balance our their positions which are currently tottering deep in the red.
theIPOguru has a nice and apt article on "Greed and Fear". Here's the article ...
It was flattering to receive all those calls and SMS’s yesterday and again, this morning, after the stock-market did the ‘Humpty-Dumpty’ act.
Most of those of you who called had seen my article titled ‘A Sense of Déjà vu’ which appeared in the HT ( Delhi and Mumbai edition ) and was also posted on the blog.
Call it premonition, or simply the wisdom that comes with hair turning grey over the years spent at the bourses, but at the end of the day, that’s what I have believed investing is all about. Its all about Asset Allocation, Re-Balancing and lots of Common Sense.
Fundamentals cannot be ignored . As good old Abe Lincoln once said ‘ You can fool all the people, some of the time; Some of the People, all the time; But you can never fool all the people, all the time’.
Will the markets rebound after this hammering ? They certainly will. When ? Ask the FIIs ( or should it be the world’s richest brothers ? ).
Like I mentioned, fundamentals cannot be ignored forever.
So my friends, keep the faith, consider buying at successive declines and play the waiting game. The rewards will come.
Patience, like I often mention, is a great virtue.
--
Here's the link to the entire article.
As for me, I've been buying (with whatever little money I have...) some of the stocks that I'm bullish on:
- Crest Animation
- Monsanto India
- Dish TV
- Patel Integrated Logistics
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